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Israel conducted a strike on Iran early on Friday (April 19) morning, incidentally the 85th birthday of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. This was in retaliation to Iran’s drone and missile barrage of April 13, which was itself a response to the Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria in which a top general was killed.
Reports suggested that a military base near Isfahan, the western Iranian city around which a lot of the Iranian nuclear production capability is concentrated, was hit on April 19. But no nuclear-related facilities were damaged, the global nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.
Israel did not claim responsibility for the attack. And Iran, after some reports by the semi-official Fars news agency about explosions in Isfahan, released pictures of a peaceful and picturesque city with its lush green gardens, scintillating architecture, and brilliant blue skies.
Since then, there has been silence on both sides. What is happening?
Thus far, and no further — for now.
The muted response by both sides reflected the desire to not raise the rhetoric at this time. Reuters quoted an Iranian official as saying there were no plans for further retaliation: “The foreign source of the incident has not been confirmed. We have not received any external attack, and the discussion leans more towards infiltration than attack.”
One important element in the chain of events was that the Biden Administration was given a heads-up on the strike by the Israelis. An American official said Israel had notified the US in advance: “We were not surprised.”
It does appear that Israel calibrated the strike carefully — no major casualties have been reported.
But Iran remains cautious, and on alert.
After the attack on Israel, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi had warned that the “tiniest invasion” by Israel would bring a “massive and harsh” response. He said this while addressing Iran’s annual Army parade, the venue for which was changed to the Army barracks in north Tehran from its usual location on a highway on the southern outskirts of the capital as a precautionary measure.
This suggested that Tehran was preparing for a possible strike by Israel. Also, the Iranian public broadcaster did not show the speech live, as in previous years.
The Americans likely restrained Israel.
In meetings with the visiting foreign ministers of the UK and Germany, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Israel’s allies for their “support in words and support in actions,” according to his office. But he added: “I want to make it clear — we will make our own decisions.”
It does appear from analysis and reporting on the subject that Netanyahu had wanted to respond to the Iranian attack, but US President Joe Biden had asked him to just “take the win” — which was the fact that Israel was able to thwart 99 per cent of the over 300 drones and missiles launched by Tehran.
Analysts have flagged Netanyahu’s abiding interest in prolonging the war and dragging the US into a conflict with Tehran. However, Biden has so far resisted, especially because a desperate battle for the White House looms, and many young Democratic voters are said to be extremely upset with the US support to Israel on the Gaza war.
India would not want an escalation of the situation.
New Delhi has reached out to both Israel and Iran, and has counselled restraint. Within hours of the Iranian attack on April 13, India had expressed “serious concern” at the escalation of hostilities and called for “immediate de-escalation”. After the Israeli strike of April 19, India did not issue a reaction.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has discussed the situation with both Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz. In his conversation with the Iranian minister, he “stressed the importance of avoiding escalation, exercising restraint and returning to diplomacy”, and with the Israeli minister, he shared India’s concern and “discussed the larger regional situation”.
The ability to connect with both countries within a day of the April 13 attacks is a valuable asset, but whether India is able to leverage its neutral stance to influence the two countries’ position in a shadow war is a separate question.
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